In November, the U.S. economy experienced net employment growth by 227,000 after the previous month saw significant distortions from weather and strikes, according to the National Council on Compensation Insurance’s (NCCI’s) Labor Market Insights Report for December 2024.
“Averaging the two months together, employment grew by roughly 130,000 each month. This suggests that the recent trajectory of employment growth is more in line with the summer slowdown than the September surprise,” states the report.
The September Surprise
The September Surprise refers to the enormous job gains experienced compared to the previous summer months, according to the October 2024 report. September saw gains of 254,000 jobs, after the increase of 72,000 jobs over the previous two months. The bulk of the private sector employment gains were in health care, leisure and hospitality services, and construction, according to the report.
November 2024 Trends
“Industry trends continued in November with outsized employment gains in health care and leisure and hospitality services,” according to the report. “Retail trade saw employment decline by 28,000, likely reflecting fewer seasonal hires than in previous years.”
Despite the fact that employment growth is slowing, wage growth “has remained firm and continues to support solid payroll growth for workers’ compensation,” the report notes. Strong employment growth in the industries mentioned in the October report suggest that “the labor market remains more favorable for growth in workers’ compensation payroll than the headlines suggest.”
Turnover has also slowed in 2024, with hires and quits averaging lower rates over the past 12 months than they did pre-pandemic. Slower turnover rates may lead to softer wage growth in 2025, the report states, as the competition to retain workers slows down. Layoffs in the industry remain historically low.