Debby Losses Expected to Be Manageable

Insured losses from Hurricane Debby are expected to be “very manageable” for the insurance industry, according to news reports citing a Gallagher Re report, with losses expected to be in the low single-digit billions of dollars. The reports state that wind and water losses for the private market and the National Flood Insurance Program are likely to be between $1 billion and $2 billion.

 According to an Aon report analyzing the storm, “Observations from an Air Force Hurricane aircraft indicate[d] surface winds to near 50 knots (kt) in an area located over 100 nautical miles southeast of the center. Most of Debby’s deep convection [occurred] in bands well to the northeast and southeast of the center, with limited shower and thunderstorm activity near/over the center. The advisor intensity increased to 50 kt based on the aircraft data.”

CSU Maintains Forecast of Atlantic Seasonal Hurricane Activity

“We have maintained our forecast for an extremely active Atlantic hurricane season in 2024,” states Colorado State University’s (CSU) latest report. “We have reduced our forecast number of named storms slightly but have maintained all other numbers from our July update. Sea surface temperatures averaged across the hurricane Main Development Region of the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean remain near record warm levels. Extremely warm sea surface temperatures provide a much more conducive dynamic and thermodynamic environment for hurricane formation and intensification.”

Furthermore, CSU states that “information obtained through early August indicates that the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season will have activity well above the 1991-2020 average. We estimate that 2024 will have 23 named storms (average is 14.4), 120 named storm days (average is 69.4), 12 hurricanes (average is 7.2), 50 hurricane days (average is 27.0), 6 major (Category 3-4-5) hurricanes (average is 3.2) and 16 major hurricane days (average is 7.4).” These numbers include storms Alberto, Beryl, Chris, and Debby, according to the university.

CSU’s confidence for this year’s forecast is higher than normal for an August forecast “based on the strength and persistence of the current hurricane-favorable large-scale environmental conditions,” it states.