Insured losses from Hurricane Helene will likely rise to the mid-to-high single-digit billion-dollar level, “higher than [our initial] pre-landfall forecast of $3 billion to $6 billion,” according to Steve Bowen, chief science officer and meteorologist, Gallagher Re, told Artemis. “Helene was a unique hurricane that has produced devastating consequences in Florida’s Big Bend, but also in areas well away from the landfall location,” he continues.
“But luckily, the storm’s peak winds missed the largest population areas in Florida and Georgia. This will help limit some of the wind-related loss costs. With a worst-case scenario avoided, this event does not appear to be large enough to meaningfully impact the broader insurance market.”
Karen Clark Company (KCC) released a similar estimate, predicting losses to be closer to $6.4 billion from wind, storm surge, and flooding across nine states. "The estimate includes the privately insured damage to residential, commercial, and industrial properties and automobiles, as well as business interruption," says KCC. "In contrast to a typical Category 4 hurricane, most of the damage occurred far from the landfall point, with higher wind damage in Georgia than Florida, more surge damage in Tampa, and the most significant inland flood damage in North Carolina."
Economic Damages
AccuWeather increased its preliminary estimate of total damage and economic losses from between $95 billion to $100 billion last week to between $145 billion to $160 billion. The numbers make Hurricane Helene “one of the costliest storms in [U.S.] history because of the devastating storm surge, damaging winds, and historic flooding,” according to AccuWeather. “In particular, the catastrophic flooding disaster in the southern Appalachians including Asheville, NC, and surrounding areas, as well as the widespread storm surge impacts along the populated west coast of Florida, such as Tampa Bay, are significant contributing factors to the estimate.”
Hurricane Aftermath
“At least 130 people have died across six states and officials fear the death toll can rise,” CNN reports. “Many more remain missing, perhaps unable to leave their location or unable to contact family where communications infrastructure is in shreds.” Furthermore, over 2 million customers remain without power, CNN states, citing poweroutage.us. Meanwhile, hundreds of roads remain closed, especially in the Carolinas, hampering the delivery of necessary supplies.
CNN reports that there is a “medium chance a new storm develops in the western Caribbean or Gulf of Mexico later this week.” However, “it’s too early to know where it’ll go from there, so anyone near the Gulf will need to monitor the forecast.”
Much of the media focus has been on mountainous areas in North Carolina that have been hit by extreme flooding. A report by The Weather Channel notes that the area received a significant rain event before Helene arrived, and that, combined with the hurricane’s heavy rains along with the terrain itself, led to the heavy flooding that has complicated recovery efforts.
More Trouble on the Way?
Meanwhile, Triple-I notes that Colorado State University (CSU) meteorologists, in their latest outlook, predict “above-normal hurricane activity” in the Atlantic basin for the first half of October, with a 99% certainty. This report comes as Hurricane Kirk strengthens to a major hurricane in the Atlantic (currently there is no threat of a U.S. landfall from this storm) and eyes turn toward a system developing in the Gulf of Mexico that could potentially threaten the U.S. coast.