As Hurricane Helene remains on track to intensify and strike Florida, likely in the central Big Bend area, Gallagher Re today says that, based on its current track, insured losses could range from $3 billion to $6 billion, according to an Artemis article. Gallagher Re adds that if the storm shifts closer to Tampa, which is considered unlikely at this point, the cost to the private insurance market and federally run insurance programs could exceed $10 billion.
Helene rapidly intensified in the Gulf of Mexico and became a hurricane Wednesday morning. It is expected to become at least a Category 3 storm before making landfall tonight south of Tallahassee, Florida, according to Triple-I's report. Triple-I cites a National Hurricane Center alert warning of “catastrophic” winds and “unsurvivable” 20-foot storm surge.
Triple-I notes that, because Helene is expected to maintain hurricane-force winds long after landfall, hurricane warnings are in effect as far north as Macon, Georgia. Severe impacts are expected throughout Florida, Georgia, the Carolinas, Southern Appalachia, and the Tennessee Valley.
Update, 12:50p.m.: Helene is predicted to be much stronger than Beryl when it makes landfall in Florida and moves inland over Georgia, according to AccuWeather’s senior director of forecasting operations Dan DePodwin. “Helene is a very dangerous hurricane and could become a ‘once in a generation storm’ across western South Carolina and North Carolina, as well as northern and eastern Georgia,” he stated. Intense winds and an abundance of trees in the area make “extensive, long-lasting power outages…likely in the hardest-hit areas,” AccuWeather states.
Likewise, North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper told CNN, “This is an unusually dangerous storm that threatens to bring heavy rain and potentially catastrophic flooding tonight and tomorrow for central and particularly western North Carolina.
So far, over 1,000 flights have been cancelled on Thursday due to Helene, with nearly half of those at Tampa International Airport, AccuWeather states.
Update, 1:10p.m.: Jerry Theodorou, policy director, finance, insurance, and trade policy, R Street Institute, projects insured losses could "be in the double-digit billions of dollars, $15 billion maybe," if the storm makes landfall close to Tallahassee or Tampa Bay: two of the more populated, built-up areas in or near the hurricane's path. If it makes landfall in Horseshoe/Suwanee stretch, a more sparsely populated area, the estimated insured losses could be in the single-digit billions of dollars. There will also be losses from flooding, which are not covered by conventional homeowners' insurance policies, but are covered for homeowners who have separate flood insurance policies.
Update, 3:10p.m.: Helene has strengthened into a Category 3 major hurricane, according to the National Hurricane Center (NHS), with sustained winds of 120 mph and stronger gusts.
The hurricane has also filled half of the Gulf of Mexico, according to CNN. Additionally, “Further north, the hurricane’s moisture is fueling storms across the Southeast and into the mid-Atlantic. It’s also influencing storminess in the western Caribbean."
Update, 3:50p.m.: Over 100,000 Florida residents are without power, CNN states, citing PowerOutage.us. “There are 109,000 homes and businesses without power as of 3:00p.m. Most of the outages are in Southwest Florida, where tropical storm-force wind gusts have been reported, but the storm’s massive wind field is starting to spread across much of the Florida Peninsula,” says CNN. The number of power outages will continue to increase as the wind continues to spread across the Southeast.
In addition, Helene’s storm surge could break records, “even in places where 20 feet is out of the question. Cedar Key—which was hit hard by Hurricane Idalia last year—could record more than 10 feet of surge, which would eclipse the record Idalia set,” according to CNN.
AccuWeather reports that Helene is likely to escalate into a Category 4 hurricane by the time it makes landfall near St. Marks between 10:00p.m. and 11:00p.m. Thursday night.
Update, 5:00p.m.: A flash flood warning has been issued for over 2 million people in Atlanta, GA, as heavy rain falls across the area, CNN reports.
Georgia Insurance Commissioner John King warns those in Helen’s path to stay vigilant when it comes to bad actors following the hurricane’s landfall. He states, “‘We’re concerned obviously about fraud, people coming in and taking advantage of people’s stress,’” and he advised people to “only do necessary repairs on their properties immediately following the storm ‘to make sure there’s no further damage to your property.’”
Furthermore, King stated that “officials will be out in hard-hit areas distributing information, and insurance companies will also be on the ground following the storm to help affected people start claims.”
Update, 6:45p.m.: Helene has strengthened to a Category 4 hurricane with 130 mph winds hours ahead of Florida landfall, according to CNN.
The state has emergency response people and resources prepared for the immediate aftermath of the hurricane, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis says. “The governor encouraged people to in evacuation zones to get out while there is still time, warning specifically of life-threatening storm surge in parts of the Big Bend areas of Florida,” CNN reports.
Update, 8:05p.m.: Helene has rapidly intensified for the second time, CNN reports, with its “top-end winds increasing by 45 mph in the past 24 hours.” Rapid intensification occurs when “a system’s maximum winds increase 35 mph or more in 24 hours or less,” the news organization explains. The first bout of rapid intensification occurred as the storm went from a low-end tropical storm to a Category 1 hurricane from Tuesday morning to Wednesday morning.
“If Hurricane Helene maintains its Category 4 strength, or at least 130 mph, it will be the strongest storm to make landfall in Florida’s Big Bend—the marshy crook of coastline that connects the panhandle and the peninsula,” reports CNN. So far, over 320,000 Florida residents, 12,500 Georgia residents, and 15,500 North Carolina residents are without power.
Update, 10:40p.m.: Discussing inland flooding caused by Helene, Jamie Rhome, deputy director of the National Hurricane Center, told CNN’s Anderson Cooper that “‘Historically speaking, 50% of lives lost are in a setup like this…we’re probably going to lose a lot of lives in this setup with this much flooding potential.’” Rhome noted that in the worst-case scenario, areas of Florida’s Big Bend will encounter a 15-foot storm surge.
Helene remains a Category 4 hurricane with 140 mph winds as of 10p.m. EST, according to CNN, citing the National Hurricane Center. “Its eyewall—where its most ferocious winds are located—has started to push over the coast in Florida’s Big Bend region,” CNN states.
With the eyewall so close to the Florida shore, the National Weather Service (NWS) has issued a rare “extreme wind warning,” reports AccuWeather. The alert states that “People in this area should treat it like a tornado and take shelter in a safe interior room…for several areas until after the eye of Hurricane Helene has passed and the intense winds subside.”
Update, 12:45a.m.: Hurricane Helene made landfall near Perry, FL as a Category 4 with 140 mph sustained winds with higher gusts, CNN reports, citing the National Hurricane Center. The storm made history, being the strongest hurricane to hit Florida’s Big Bend.
So far, there have been two fatalities in Alamo, GA, from a tornado related to Hurricane Helene, states CNN, and over a million Florida residents are without power. There are also 46,040 residents without power in Georgia, 12,427 in North Carolina, 7,221 in Virginia, and 5,540 in South Carolina, reports CNN.
9/27/24
Update, 10:10a.m.: Over 3.2 million people have lost power across Florida, Georgia, the Carolinas, and southern Virginia Friday morning, CNN reported, citing PowerOutage.us.
There have been five reported deaths from Hurricane Helene. According to CNN, “There has been at least one storm-related death in Florida and two in Georgia, confirmed by the states’ governors. A 4-year-old died Thursday in Catawba County, NC, in a head-on wreck on roads slick with rain from Helene’s outer bands.”
Heavy rainfall from what is now Tropical Storm Helene “is expected to in both urban and river flooding, as well as landslides, causing catastrophic conditions across the Southeast.” Tornadoes are also possible this morning over parts of eastern Georgia, the Carolinas, and southern Virginia, CNN states.
Update, 5:25p.m.: Thirty deaths have been reported in the aftermath of Hurricane Helene, and it will continue to produce life-threatening conditions as it moves inland over the Southeast with intense wind and flooding, AccuWeather states.
“Around 1,500 emergency workers are focusing on search and rescue efforts, Florida’s top emergency management official said Friday, according to AccuWeather.
The National Hurricane Center estimated, based on computer modeling, that Hurricane Helene’s storm surge reached at least 15 feet near Keaton Beach, Steinhatchee, and Horseshoe Beach, FL.
This article will be updated throughout the day as more information becomes available.