Hurricane Beryl churned its way into the record books after rapidly intensifying, then weakening, then striking the U.S.; and 2024 appears set to see a lot more activity in the Atlantic, with Colorado State University (CSU) researchers increasing their forecast for what was already expected to be an extremely active hurricane season.
As noted in a Moody’s RMS blog post by Sarah Hartley, director; and James Cosgrove, assistant director, both with Moody’s RMS Event Response, Beryl formed as a tropical storm on June 29 and rapidly intensified to a Category 4 hurricane in just 48 hours. Beryl made landfall on Grenada’s Carriacou Island as a Category 4 on July 1, and, by July 2, the storm became the earliest Category 5 major hurricane on record in the North Atlantic Basin.
According to Moody’s RMS, Hurricane Beryl now holds a number of North Atlantic Basin records, including:
- Easternmost hurricane to form in June.
- Strongest hurricane in June.
- Earliest Category 4 hurricane.
- Strongest hurricane to impact the southernmost Caribbean Windward Islands.
- Earliest Category 5 hurricane.
Beryl subsequently weakened to a tropical storm, but then made landfall near Matagorda, Texas as a Category 1 hurricane early on July 8, making it the first named storm of the season to hit the U.S. A Triple-I blog by Jeff Dunsavage, senior research analyst, Triple-I, states, “Beryl unleashed flooding rains and winds that transformed roads into rivers and ripped through power lines and tossed trees onto homes, roads, and cars. Restoring power to millions of Texans could take days or even weeks, subjecting residents who will not have air conditioning to further risk as a sweltering heatwave settles over the state.”
A Sign of Things to Come?
CSU researchers say Beryl is “a likely harbinger of a hyperactive season” as they slightly increased their 2024 hurricane season forecast. Previously, CSU’s forecast called for 23 named storms (average is 14.4), 115 named storm days (average is 69.4), 11 hurricanes (average is 7.2), 45 hurricane days (average is 27.0), five major (Category 3-4-5) hurricanes (average is 3.2) and 13 major hurricane days (average is 7.4).
In a July revision, CSU now calls for 25 named storms, 120 named storm days, 12 hurricanes, 50 hurricane days, six major hurricanes, and 16 major hurricane days. “While early season storm activity in the western Atlantic typically has little relationship with overall basin-wide activity, deep tropical hurricane activity in the tropical Atlantic and eastern Caribbean (such as we saw with Beryl) is often associated with hyperactive seasons,” CSU researchers say. “Our confidence this year is higher than normal for a July forecast based on the strength and persistence of the current hurricane-favorable large-scale environmental conditions.”
The researchers add that the probability of U.S. major hurricane landfall is estimated to be well above its long-period average.