Global insured losses due to natural catastrophes are expected to reach at least $102 billion through the first three quarters of 2024 and may exceed the $125 billion in insured losses experienced through all of 2023, according to Aon’s Q3 Global Catastrophe Recap. “Losses from Hurricane Milton and additional events expected in the rest of the calendar year will likely push total annual insured losses above the 2023 level,” explains the report.
The number is already above the average since 2000 ($79 billion) and the median of the same period ($68 billion). “Natural catastrophes in the [U.S.] accounted for nearly 80% of global insured losses in the first three quarters of 2024, reaching nearly $80 billion,” the report states. “North Atlantic Hurricane activity produced several costly events in the third quarter, led by Hurricane Helene, which resulted in severe wind and flood-related losses in the southeastern [U.S.].” Furthermore, Hurricane Beryl caused about $3.6 billion in insured losses and Debby cost roughly $3.5 billion, while severe convective storms (SCS) generated around $13 billion in insured losses globally.
Economic Losses
“Global economic losses due to natural disasters in the Q1-Q3 period of 2024 were preliminarily estimated at $258 billion, approximately 7% lower than the long-term mean since 2000 ($277 billion), and slightly above the median ($254 billion),” the report states. Hurricane Helene, it continues, is “by far the costliest event of the Q1-Q3 period, with losses from Hurricane Milton (a Q4 event) still being assessed.
As far as economic losses in the U.S. specifically, preliminary estimates show that the first three quarters of 2024 reached at least $120 billion, above the average since 2000 ($92 billion). Meanwhile, losses in all other regions, according to the report, were below their long-term averages.
Slow Start to Hurricane Season
“The reality was very different from expectations through the climatological peak of the [hurricane] season on [Sept. 10],” states the report, as there were very few named storms in the beginning of the season. This is because “extremely high surface temperatures, one of the main drivers of the aggressive forecasts, have indeed persisted throughout the season. However, high temperatures in the upper levels of the troposphere likely resulted in some vertical stabilization and suppression of the expected effect.” Another factor, the report continues, is “the monsoon shifted too far north, which resulted in African easterly waves emerging in higher latitudes than expected throughout the first half of the hurricane season, where sea surface temperatures were relatively lower.”
Q3 2024 Stand Outs
The U.S. has recorded 19 billion-dollar insured loss SCS events in 2024, just shy of last year’s record of 21, the report states, making 2024 the second consecutive year with over $50 billion in SCS-related insured losses. Significantly, “outside of 2023, no other years feature total annual insured losses from SCS events reaching even $45 billion.”
Other standouts for this year include the fact that Canada experienced its highest insured losses on record in 2024, mainly due to “flash flooding across southern Ontario in mid-July, the Jasper Fire in Alberta, as well as the Calgary Hailstorm and remnants of Hurricane Debby that both causes extensive damage in early August.” All of these events caused $5.5 billion in insured losses.
Additionally, Typhoon Yagi “intensified into an extremely potent Category 5 storm in the South China Sea in early August after affecting the Philippines. Following impact in southern China and Southeast Asia resulted in the deadliest catastrophe event of the year so far, excluding heatwaves.”